Local Food Systems of the Current and Emerging.

Amidst emerging global challenges, the call for regional and national economies to look inwards cannot be overemphasized. Recurrently, there is the compelling need to explore new options that ensure life on earth is preserved. This may include trade-offs at different levels especially as it relates to protecting environmental resources. It would also include engaging in research for development, formulating favourable policies and engaging individuals actively. The latter is the main focus of this piece. This article explores a collection of stakeholder responsibilities required to sustain local food systems. 

Did you know? 

You and I are direct or indirect actors in the production, aggregation, processing, distribution, consumption and disposal of food products in different forms. Whether as consumers or direct value-chain actors, every human plays a role in the achievement of food and nutrition security. And this is dependent on building, protecting and sustaining local food systems that are resilient to shocks. Moreover, unless we collectively decide to become breatharians – feeding on air rather than food – productive food systems would always be fundamental to human existence. 

What then can we do to produce more and better food (quantity and quality) amidst environmental, economic and social challenges without compromising the future of the next generation? How can we build sustainable food systems that have the ability to prepare for, adapt to and recover from different kinds of stress and shocks? How can Funke, a member of the Nigerian Parliament influence policies that protect local food systems in Nigeria? How can Chinedu the mechanic preserve his yams in an effort to protect food systems? How can Kwakwa, a herbalist in Northern Nigeria safely harvest his herbs without destroying his local food system?

Building and sustaining local food systems 

Let’s take a look at some stakeholder responsibilities that can collectively build and sustain local food systems. Some of these include;

Food Producers: These are the first and most important parts of our food systems. What is a food system without food producers? Food producers are the drivers and initial protectors of our food systems. Therefore, considering that building sustainable food systems is dependent on the optimum use of resources, willingness to adopt improved technologies and other innovations is sure to accelerate the process. These innovations may be in the form of improved seed varieties, digitalization of on-farm processes, mechanization, use of balanced fertilizer blends and other areas of precision agriculture.

The Government: There is a need to increase investment in regional and national research for development to drive country-specific innovations. This should be logical and solution-driven such that gaps are identified and actionable solutions provided. Favourable and consistent policies especially around land use, gender barriers, and a stable macro-economic environment would also enable partnerships and private sector-led investments.

Consumers: Behavioural changes are pivotal to building sustainable food systems. The consumer is the “king” and a major driver of every production and distribution process. The choices made by consumers with respect to the way, type and quantity of food consumed are important to our food systems. For example, making a decision to consume more indigenous or local varieties of food as against foreign/imported varieties and processed foods can serve as a driver for producing more local varieties. These local foods are beneficial to local food systems. Local foods are full of flavour and nutrients; they benefit the environment, promote safer supply, and support local economies.  Furthermore, consumers can protect local food systems by adjusting their diets and reducing food wastages which stress environmental resources. Consumer education is also crucial; people need to understand how their actions and inactions affect the future of food production for this generation and the next.

Investors: Investment strategies that support local food systems integration with environmental resources should be favoured over those that do not. Increasing investments by financing innovations, research and development, providing incentives to farmers for adopting new technologies etc. will contribute immensely to sustaining local food systems. For example, agricultural value-chain financing is a strategy private investors can leverage on. It is a sustainable approach to funding the production and distribution of foods. It creates value for money whilst promoting effectiveness and efficiency. 

It is important to add that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to creating change. A collection of productive actions from every individual is the pathway to building beneficial food systems in current and emerging times of the future. Are there other actions you consider relevant to building sustainable food systems, please leave a comment below and let’s get talking.

The Author

Ogbole Esther

''As an agriculture enthusiast, I have long had a passion for contributing my quota to the growth and development of the Nigeria agricultural sector and this birthed an interest in research to see what and how precisely agricultural strategies are implemented in developed economies of the world and how they can be adapted to suit the Nigerian scenario''. 

Agriculture in the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) 2021 Macroeconomic-Outlook for Nigeria.

 The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) in February 2021 launched its 2021 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria. In the report, the group revealed that only five (5) sectors experienced positive growth in 2020. These sectors include finance and insurance, information and communication, water supply, sewage and waste, human health, social services, and agriculture, which grew by 1.7%. Let’s now take a look at the recommendations of this report and the implications for the country’s agricultural sector in 2021.

The Existing Challenges

It’s no news that the growth of the Nigerian economy in 2020 was stalled by several factors including implementation of lockdowns that led to the disruption of supply chains, fall in crude oil price, and rising cases of insecurity in the country. Consequently, 16 out of 19 economic sectors contracted, leading to an overall contraction of the country’s GDP by 1.92% in the year under review.¹

While it may be expected that the lifting of lockdown measures, discovery of COVID-19 vaccines, and the recovery in the price of crude oil since Q4 2020 would translate to a much anticipated economic growth, this may not be so. The NESG reports that “several indicators point to the fact that many of the problems stalling the growth of the Nigerian economy existed pre COVID-19”². These problems include a steady decline in foreign investment inflow, a decline in external reserves, increasing inflation rates as well as a decline in the balance of trade due to increased importation. Furthermore, an unfriendly investment business environment remains a major challenge, as investor feedback captured by the NESG report centered on challenges such as corruption, bureaucracy in obtaining government approvals, policy inconsistencies, smuggling, poor infrastructural development, and insecurity.

The Way Forward

Having outlined the existing challenges, the report projected a three-case scenario for the Nigerian economy going forward, that is, the best, business-as-usual, and worst case scenarios. These scenarios are hinged on the government's approach towards four priority areas, viz-a-viz;

i. Macroeconomic stability

ii. Policy and regulatory consistency

iii. Sectoral reform and 

iv. Human capital development

Deductions from this report validate the assumption that if existing gaps in economic stability are to be bridged in 2021, addressing these four priority areas that cut across different sectors of the economy remain the nation’s best strategic option. Furthermore, in addressing the need for sectoral reforms, the report identified that between 2015 and 2019, crop production made the second-highest contribution to 92.2% of the country’s GDP. The sector contributed 37.2% to the country’s GDP only after telecommunications and information services which contributed 37.7%, while crude petroleum and natural gas in third place contributed 17.3%. This affirms the potentials of the country’s agricultural sector and the role it plays in ensuring economic stability.

Therefore, in focusing on the agricultural sector, we would expect to see more of the following;

1. Consistent and robust policies;

2. Elimination of regulatory and administrative bottlenecks especially in relation to the exportation of agro commodities produced in Nigeria;

3. Enabling a business environment that encourages more private sector-led investments (improved security, infrastructural development, better foreign exchange policies, etc)

4. “Thinking and doing technology”

5. Massive investment and total overhaul of the educational sector. This will produce sound and innovative graduates who will proffer creative solutions tailored to our challenges;

6. Efficient delivery by government MDAs and so much more.

In order for Nigeria to live up to its position as the “giant of Africa,” it is imperative to note that its efforts towards driving economic stability should remain at the center of every proposition. Foreign investors and domestic private businesses will not provide the needed support when the country’s business environment is unfavorable. Succinctly, as a matter of urgency, the government would need to put in more effort at all levels including Federal, State, and Local government to create the change we all desire.

Reference

1. Guaranty Trust Bank Plc (2021): Nigeria Macroeconomic and Banking Sector Themes for 2021

2. The Nigeria Economic Group (2021): NESG Macroeconomic-Outlook 2021. Retrieved from https://www.nesgroup.org/research  

 

The Author

Ogbole Esther

 

''As an agriculture enthusiast, I have long had a passion for contributing my quota to the growth and development of the Nigeria agricultural sector and this birthed an interest in research to see what and how precisely agricultural strategies are implemented in developed economies of the world and how they can be adapted to suit the Nigerian scenario''. 

Keep soil alive, protect soil biodiversity

In building resilient and sustainable food systems, issues bordering on the protection of soil resources must be at the fore of high-level stakeholder dialogues. Soils have been unequivocally described as being fundamental to life on earth¹, the very foundation of our food production², the cradle of civilization³, the skin of the earth⁴, the most biologically diverse material on earth⁵, and ultimately, the heart of agriculture⁶. However, the optimal functioning of soils in line with the aforementioned description is dependent on healthy soil biodiversity. 

Soil biodiversity refers to the variety of life below ground with diversities that encompass their genus, species, and the communities they form as well as the ecological complexes (including soil micro-habitats and landscapes⁷) to which they contribute and belong. 

Succinctly, soil biodiversity is the community of microorganisms present in the soil. Examples of these organisms are earthworms, spiders, woodlice, termites, crickets, moles, ants, algae, fungi, bacteria, and protozoa.

Image source: http://blog.actuaries.org.uk/blog/biodiversity-risk-natural-capital-and-actuarial-practice 

In enabling the soil to perform optimally, microorganisms hold soil particles together, as well as break down and circulate nutrients in the soil. Microorganisms also improve the nutrient content of food and subsequently improves human health. This occurs when plant-based antioxidants which are nutritionally beneficial to the human body are produced through micro-organisms. By breaking down organic pollutants and maintaining a complex food web involving series of exchanges, the community of microorganisms in the soil additionally contributes to climate change adaptation and mitigation⁸. 

Quick Facts: 

 There are more microorganisms in the soil than there are humans on earth. In this context, the phrase “the more the merrier” literally comes to mind. It is expected that healthy soils will contain unquantifiable amounts of microorganisms for optimal performance;

 Only 1% of microorganisms in the soil have been discovered¹⁰;

 In an area the size of a football field, soil organisms produce organic matter equivalent to the weight of 25 cars every year¹⁰.

Drivers of soil biodiversity loss:

Despite the many benefits of microorganisms in the soil, human-related soil degradation activities continue to pose major threats to the optimal utilization of these benefits. Some of these human-related activities include poorly planned urbanization and rapid encroachment on productive soils, deforestation, bush burning, misguided fertilizer application, uncontrolled exploitation of marginal soils, intense agricultural activities, pollution, desertification, and erosion.  FAO has summarily identified five (5) main drivers of soil biodiversity loss to include;

i. Land use change (this may be driven by urbanization);

ii. Invasive species (predatory microorganisms that destroy economically beneficial microorganisms present in the soil);

iii. Unsustainable soil management practices;

iv. Pollution and soil sealing and

v. Urbanization.

How to keep soils alive

As a steward for healthy soils, I continue to plant and encourage my neighbors to plant trees as an effort towards living sustainably by growing a greener environment, I engage in soil research and ensure that I reduce and reuse waste materials. This is because the preservation of soil biodiversity for optimal soil performance would require an active engagement in sustainable practices by every living human on earth. Therefore, a summary of actions targeted at keeping soils alive as promoted by FAO include to;

i. Live sustainably by growing greener cities,

ii. Invest in research on soil biodiversity,

iii. Engage in sustainable soil management (e.g. planting cover crops, practicing crop rotation in places where land is available, providing habitat for beneficial insects,

iv. Serve as stewards for soils by constantly advocating for living soils and

v. Reducing, reuse and recycle materials to lessen stress on soils.

 

References

1. FAO and ITPS (2015): Status of World’s Soil Resources (SWSR) - Technical Summary. Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations and Intergovernmental Technical Panel on Soils, Rome, Italy 

2. ISRIC World Soil Information: Soils and Food Security. Available at https://www.isric.org/utilise/global-issues/food-security#:~:text=Soils%20are%20at%20the%20very,intensified%20due%20to%20increasing%20pressure.&text=ISRIC%20creates%20and%20maintains%20soil,of%20policy%2D%20and%20decision%20making. 

3. GeoExpro (2006): Mesopotamia - The Cradle of Civilization. GeoExpro Magazine Vol. 3, No.

2. Available at https://www.geoexpro.com/articles/2006/02/mesopotamia-the-cradle-of-civilization 

4. Soil Science Society of Ameria: Soil4kids - What is Soil? Available at https://www.soils4kids.org/about#:~:text=What%20is%20Soil%3F,vital%20to%20life%20on%20earth. 

5. NSW Government (2018): Soil Biodiversity. Available at https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/land-and-soil/soil-degradation/soil-biodiversity 

6. The James Hutton Institute: Soils@Hutton - Soil and Food Security. Available at https://www.hutton.ac.uk/learning/soilshutton/soil-and-food-security

7. FAO (2020): The Role of Soil Organisms in Ensuring Sustainable Agri-Food Systems and Mitigating Climate Change. Food and Agriculture Organisation News Report available at http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1339016/icode/#:~:text=The%20new%20FAO%20report%20defines,soil%20micro%2Dhabitats%20to%20landscapes. 

8. FAO, ITPS, GSBI, SCBD and EC. 2020. State of knowledge of soil biodiversity – Status, challenges and potentialities, Summary for policymakers. Rome, FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb1929en 

 

9. European Union (2010): The Factory of Life - Why Soil Biodiversity is Important. Available at https://ec.europa.eu/environment/archives/soil/pdf/soil_biodiversity_brochure_en.pdf

The Author

Ogbole Esther

 ''As an agriculture enthusiast, I have long had a passion for contributing my quota to the growth and development of the Nigeria agricultural sector and this birthed an interest in research to see what and how precisely agricultural strategies are implemented in developed economies of the world and how they can be adapted to suit the Nigerian scenario''. 

The Pangs of Food Inflation in Nigeria

The National Bureau of Statistics has released Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation Report for October 2020. In this report¹ dated 16^th November 2020, the country’s current food inflation rate stands at 17.38%, up by 0.72% points and 4.32% higher month-on-month as compared with 16.66% in September. The report reveals that increase in prices of bread, cereals, potatoes, some tubers, meat, fish, fruits, vegetables and beverages led to the rise in food index for the month under review. 

In October 2015, Nigeria’s food index was 10.1%², implying a steady increment by about 7.28% points and marginally by approximately 72% within a five year period (2015 till date). Conversely, in October 2019, the index further increased to 14.09%,³ implying that between October 2019 and October 2020, Nigeria’s food index rose by 3.29% points and 23.35% marginally.

Before the release of the current CPI report, the prevalent hike in prices of food items which I consider a realistic expression of figures published by statisticians, has gained widespread attention across the country. This hike is influenced by factors such as activities of bandits in the North-West, general insecurity and reported cases of flood across the country, hoarders reserving food in speculation of the usual heightened demand during Christmas festivities, disruptions in the food supply chain, as well as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Amidst inexhaustible challenges, many farmers produced less this season, driving food inflation higher before the 2021 harvest season⁴.

Already, experts report a looming food crisis in the country exit 2020 . The UN warns of “famines of biblical proportions” in the coming year, adding that parts of Burkina Faso, Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen are approaching levels of critical hunger⁵. This implies as always that issues affecting food production and supply chain need to be urgently addressed.

In Nigeria today, the prices of many food items have either doubled or more than doubled in price. For example; 

FOOD ITEM	PRICE IN 2020 Q1 (NGN)	PRICE IN 2020 Q4 (NGN)	% ↑↓
50Kg Bag of foreign rice	26,000	34,000	30.7%
1 Bag of sweet potatoes	3,500	10,750	207%
1 Bag of onions	5,000	55,000	1000%
1 Sachet of tomatoes	50	150	200%
1 mudu of dry paper	800	1000	25%
1 mudu of beans	325	625	92%

Source: Author’s personal experience/one-on-one interactions with traders in some markets in parts of Northern Nigeria

In October, the #endsars protest which began as a peaceful demonstration by Nigerian youths calling for an end to police brutality and bad governance drifted into the vandalisation of government and private assets by hoodlums as well as the looting of COVID19 palliatives by hungry Nigerians. While the looting of palliatives was met with mixed reactions, I consider it a true representation of the Nigerian State, viz-a-viz failed structures and systems, weak institutions, deprived citizens, high rate of hunger and poverty and so much more. I also consider it a true reflection of the prevailing food inflation rate amidst so much hardship in the country. Sadly, the gap in income level of many Nigerians and prices of food in the market continues to widen, causing more citizens to struggle for survival.

Therefore, in view of the fact that these prices have been predicted to rise steadily, it has become critical to declare a state of emergency to reposition the Nigerian agricultural sector. In my article on food inflation published in June 2020⁶, one major solution proffered was the need to look inwards. Strengthening local capacity across various agricultural value chains is key! 

The solution is not in borrowing money from Brazil⁷ to fund food production, at least not yet. Until Nigeria’s agricultural sector is repositioned to address real-time issues, the government might just be borrowing to fill the pockets of some greedy, hungry and short-sighted Nigerians. In addition, there is the need to enhance the capacity of farmers in line with global best practices for sustainable agricultural intensification as well as strengthen the capacity of institutions saddled with promoting agriculture. This will include charging government agencies to deliver on their mandates amongst numerous sustainable approaches.

In conclusion, it is imperative to add that looking inwards also includes growing a fraction of what we eat as individuals and family units. Let’s grow our pepper, herbs, vegetables, maize, beans, groundnut and even tubers depending on available land space, bearing in mind that some of these food items can be planted in containers. By doing this, we would be adopting a holistic approach towards promoting sustainable food systems that will ensure food is available and affordable for all Nigerians.

References

1. National Bureau of Statistics (2020): Consumer Price Index October 2020. It can be accessed via https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary

2. National Bureau of Statistics (2015): Consumer Price Index October 2015. It can be accessed via https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary

3. National Bureau of Statistics (2019): Consumer Price Index October 2019. It can be accessed via https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary

4. The Green Investment Club (2020): There’s honestly no way to say this. Customer weekly newsletter delivered on 12/11/2020

5. The Hill (2020): UN warns of “famines of biblical proportions” within the next year. Online newspaper publication by Joseph Guzman on 16/11/2020. It can be accessed via https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/poverty/526146-un-warns-of-famines-of-biblical-proportions-within-the-next

6. Grow4Peace (2020): Food Inflation: The Impact of COVID-19 on Food Demand and Supply in Nigeria. An article published by Ogbole Esther on 08/06/2020. It can be accessed via https://www.grow4peace.co.uk/2020/06/food-inflation-impact-of-covid-19-on.html

7. Premium Times (2020): What you need to know about Nigeria’s $1.2bn loan from Brazil. Online newspaper publication by Ntiedo Ekott. It cam be accessed via https://www.premiumtimesng.com/agriculture/agric-news/425277-what-you-need-to-know-about-nigerias-1-2bn-loan-from-brazil.html#:~:text=The%20Nigerian%20government%20has%20announced,at%20the%20House%20of%20Representatives.

The Author

Ogbole Esther

 

''As an agricultural enthusiast, I have long had a passion for contributing my quota to the growth and development of the Nigeria agricultural sector and this birthed an interest in research to see what and how precisely agricultural strategies are implemented in developed economies  of the world and how they can be adapted to suit the Nigerian scenario''.

World Food Day 2020: To Grow, Nourish, Sustain. Together.

Despite deliberate social distancing in parts of the world in order to slow the spread of the Corona Virus, one lasting lesson from the COVID19 pandemic is the need for togetherness and collaboration especially in the midst of travails that threaten us all. The pandemic also emphasized the need to ensure our food systems are at all times active and efficient, catering to the nutritional needs of millions of people around the world.

(Photo credit: FAO,2020)

It is estimated that the impact of the COVID19 pandemic may increase the number of hungry persons from about a 690million people in 2019 to over an 800million people between 2020 and 2021, depending on the economic growth scenario. This is in view of the fact that poor and vulnerable persons from communities in developing countries were worst hit, leading to higher rates of food insecurity as food either became scarce or was sold at higher prices where available.

As we strive to achieve zero hunger by the year 2030, the theme of this year’s #worldfoodday calls for collective action to build food systems that are resilient to shock. This includes inputs from producers and suppliers across the agricultural value-chain, manufacturers, governments, financiers, and more importantly the everyday consumer.

In order to continually maintain efficient food systems, every role player needs to be intentional as a part of the unit working for the world’s greater good. We need to make conscious efforts and choices to promote growing and consuming safe and nutritious food sustainably, taking into consideration the needs of others and the future of generations yet unborn.

As a producer, this will be reflected by how much of your processes adhere to global best practices for sustainable agricultural intensification. This will ensure that we sustainably grow foods to nourish the world’s population together.

As a supplier, protecting the environment and ensuring the safety of foods in the course of transportation from the farm to the fork will ensure we sustainably make nutritious food available together.

As consumers, making the right food choices, growing some portion of your own food within a home garden as well as avoiding food wastage ensures that our food system sustainably grows nutritious food at all times.

As a government, well-thought-out implementable policies that consider the needs of stakeholders in the food production system, including policies that protect the environment in the midst of intensified production as well as secure the food production and supply workforce which will ensure we sustainably grow and nourish together as a people.

Also, building systems to enable farmer’s access finance for agricultural activities especially in the rural communities as most of the communities with high productivity will ensure we sustainably grow the right quantities of food, enough for everyone.

The world needs not wait for another pandemic before we put our food systems in order. Beginning from “yesterday”, we should strengthen our food production processes and infrastructure against uncertainties such as the CoronaVirus. In doing so, we can grow, nourish, sustain. Together!

To our #foodheroes all around the world, producing and supplying food in the midst of these difficult times, we see you and we celebrate you.

Happy world food day!

The Author

Ogbole Esther

''As an agriculture enthusiast, I have long had a passion for contributing my quota to the growth and development of the Nigeria agricultural sector and this birthed an interest in research to see what and how precisely agricultural strategies are implemented in developed economies of the world and how they can be adapted to suit the Nigerian scenario''.

 

 

National security and food security: The way forward

In my last article, I shared my views on the relationship between national and food security and how much the former can impact the achievement of the latter. It is established that the achievement of food and nutrition security in addition to other factors is highly dependent on the strength of a nation’s security. Threats to national security can lead to loss of life, destruction of farmlands, and migration of the food production workforce as earlier stated. It can also stall infrastructural development, market access, and other variables involved in the food supply chain. Therefore, it can be concluded that insecurity threatens the production, demand, and supply of food. 

Insecurity depletes the quantity and quality of food produced as the process of adopting improved practices are affected. Many rural farming communities in Nigeria with the potential to produce large quantities of agricultural commodities are cut-off from activities of researchers and extension agents, consequent upon security challenges inherent in these locations. For example, research extension activities have slowed down in some farming communities in Kaduna State, mainly because of incessant community clashes. These communities are not readily accessed in disseminating information on available markets/off-takers, improved farming practices, and technologies, as well as new and improved plant varieties required for improved productivity. Farmers in these communities sometimes also lack access to agro-inputs and agricultural support initiatives from government, private and international donor agencies.

While we often complain of the government’s ineptitude towards recurring issues such as finance, research, information dissemination, infrastructural development and near-extinction of the region’s farming population who are predominantly aged people, there is a need to urgently address emerging threats to the security of existing resources to ensure optimum production in the midst of increasing population and urbanization.

 In synergizing food and national security for sustained livelihoods, the following are a few recommendations on sustainable approaches for improvement:

 It is important to clearly identify and understand the root causes of these conflicts/insurgencies for the implementation of more effective conflict  resolution initiatives;

 There is a need to ensure that conflicts are resolved through an all-inclusive and participatory approach - elimination of a biased approach to conflict resolution;

 The government needs to “genuinely” commit time, personnel, and other resources to combat security challenges. When resources are deployed, activities should be monitored regularly for sustained change;

 Government and Stakeholders should collaboratively create an enabling environment for youth participation in agriculture through the creation of more employment opportunities in the sector as well as the implementation of education and entrepreneurship initiatives.

 Ensure that displaced persons are settled back in their original homes after having created a secure and peaceful environment;

 Build resilience by helping communities prevent, anticipate, prepare for, cope with, and recover from conflicts through economic empowerment

 Investment in food security through infrastructural development.

In conclusion, an approach to synergizing national security and food security should be multifaceted to ensure sustainability. This way livelihoods, resources, and economies are harnessed to ensure that the process of producing and supplying food is safe for all and that all persons have access to sufficient, readily available, quality food by the year 2030.

The Author

Ogbole Esther

''As an agriculture enthusiast, I have long had a passion for contributing my quota to the growth and development of the Nigeria agricultural sector and this birthed an interest in research to see what and how precisely agricultural strategies are implemented in developed economies of the world and how they can be adapted to suit the Nigerian scenario''.

Food Inflation: The Impact of COVID-19 on Food Demand and Supply in Nigeria.

Food inflation is said to occur when the total demand for food within a given period exceeds supply, leading to an upsurge in the price (Qayyum and Sultana, 2018). It is a reduction in the purchasing power per unit of money as it applies to food, implying too much money chasing too few food items. In simpler terms, food inflation occurs when the value/quantity of food items a consumer can purchase declines as a result of increased prices. While research has shown that food inflation may favour export-driven economies that will benefit from increased prices, it remains a major challenge for countries that depend on imports. Worse hit are developing nations where a shock in food price volatility translates to more persons going hungry and without food. 

According to reports released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in April 2020, food inflation in Nigeria increased to 14.98% in March 2020 - the highest rate year-on-year since March, 2018. This report was released prior to changes that came with the COVID-19 lockdown measures initiated by the Nigerian government in parts of the country from 30th March 2020. 

Although the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) reported a sharp decline in the world prices of food items such as vegetable oil, cereals, sugar and dairy products except for rice, because of “demand-side contractions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and the decline in crude oil prices”. The same cannot be said of domestically produced and consumed food items like staples in Nigeria. This is due to a spike in demand and interrupted supply hinged on logistical issues associated with the restrictions in movement. It is expected that demand for food may continue to increase or reach a sustained peak for as long as the full or partial lockdown persists, with production almost unaffected for as long as farmers remain uninfected and are encouraged to continue with farming activities. But sustained supply related issues from both ends of agricultural inputs to farmers and output commodities to consumers despite continued production may lead to an upsurge in Consumer Price Index (CPI) which will lead to higher rates of food inflation if left unattended.

Therefore, the likelihood of a COVID-19 induced food inflation to occur would be hinged on containment measures, inhibiting supply and consumer panic behaviour, increasing demand. This is a deviation from the conventional causes of food inflation such as climate change, high oil prices, and world trade policies. Consequently, if adequate measures are not put in place, food inflation may become a term synonymous with the world’s current order – a period described as the “new normal” and characterized by never-before-seen challenges and the need to develop new survival strategies. 

The need for countries to look inwards is imperative. This could be achieved by intensifying local production, opening up reserves, researching on improved ways to manage supply chains domestically and across borders for countries highly dependent on imports. Achieving this provides more opportunities for farmers who are able to take advantage of increased demand for staples as full and/or partial lockdowns are in effect. Some measures to manage the current situation and prevent more spikes in food prices would be the implementation of food price stability by the government, linking farmers to market programmes, deliberate efforts to support the supply of agricultural commodities as well as the intensification of research and knowledge sharing amongst relevant stakeholders.

PS: At the point of publishing this article, the National Bureau of Statistics’ latest report revealed that food inflation in Nigeria for April spiked to 15.03% from 14.98% in March as local markets in some parts of the FCT - the country’s capital - are running out of stock of fresh food items mostly imported from the far North as restrictions on inter-state movements persist. Although the increased inflation rate is only about 0.05% increase from March to April as against a 0.08% increase from February to March 2020, measures still need to be put in place to prevent a sustained increase.

References:

Food and Agriculture Organisation (2020): World Food Prices Drop in March. Available at http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1269050/icode/

National Bureau of Statistics (2020): Selected Food Prices Watch, March 2020. Available at https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary

National Bureau of Statistics (2020): CPI and Inflation Report, April 2020. Available at https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary

Trading Economics (2020): Nigeria Food Inflation:1996-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast | Calendar | Historical. Available at https://tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/food-inflation 

Qayyum, A. and Sultana, B. (2018): Factors of Food Inflation: Evidence from Time Series of Pakistan. Journal of Banking and Finance Management, 1 (2), 22 – 30

The Author

Ogbole Esther.

''As an agricultural enthusiast, I have long had a passion for contributing my quota to the growth and development of the Nigeria agricultural sector and this birthed an interest in research to see what and how precisely agricultural strategies are implemented in developed economies of the world and how they can be adapted to suit the Nigerian scenario''.

 

 

 

 

Rebuilding for better: Policies for post-COVID-19.

For a long time, one of the reasons deemed responsible for slow progress in the diversification efforts of economies in parts of sub-Saharan Africa was Rural-Urban Migration, which has seen large numbers of young people moving into the already crowded big cities in search of better opportunities. Informal job roles in rural communities within the agriculture value chains have been abandoned for ‘decent’ employments in cities, leaving fewer hands to produce our much-needed farm foods and resurrect our economies through the exportation of cash crops. This begs the question, ‘what happens after the coronavirus pandemic?' What will be the new normal for food production, cost of inputs and access to new markets, with jobs lost and businesses shutting their doors for good, what policies should be adopted to help us rebuild our food systems for a food-secure future.

The world found ways to move on from several plagues in the past, such as, the Black Death (1346-1353), which was said to have changed the course of Europe’s history, the Flu pandemic (1889-1890) killing over a million people, the Spanish flu (1918-1920) of over 500 million cases of which no less than one-fifth died from it, and many others. One similarity about these past incidents is that the world devised ways to re-build all that was lost and move on, but what about lessons learnt? Especially on how vulnerable and outdated our systems are.

Before the Covid-19 global pandemic, the United Nations had a global target of ending hunger and poverty (SDGs 1 and 2) among 15 other goals, by the year 2030, it was projected that the global food production will need to increase by anywhere from 25-70% between now and 2050 in order to feed our growing population. These projections from available data, informed food policies in many countries of the world and formed bases for intervention programmes in developing countries. Now, more than ever, the impact of Covid-19 on achieving sustainable development goals 1 and 2 is likely to cost us additional years than earlier planned as we have seen a rapid rise in the number of hungry children and families around the world. Local economies are halted, and countries are at the verge of falling into a recession. The affordability and accessibility to essential food items are limited in vulnerable communities, leaving many households hungry and impoverished

Post-COVID-19 will see drastic changes in many sectors around the world, for sub-Saharan Africa to build on lessons learned from this global pandemic, re-building for a better food system will require: 

• Drawing lessons from previous events to design better policies: Policies that facilitate the transfer of food products to places where they are most needed, policies around the export of agricultural products and Fairtrade.
• Developing standards for agriculture in emergencies: Ensuring access to food in the middle of a global pandemic was never considered by most governments of developing countries, developing a working plan for similar incidence gives us a better fighting chance against future pandemics.
• Investing in environmental and sustainable food production research: Investing in research aimed at sustainable ways of growing our food without causing harm to our environment is vital as climate change, in a few years maybe more severe than a global pandemic.
• Prioritizing the needs of those who grow our food: The people who grow our food are some of the poorest in our communities and the least considered for capacity building opportunities and capital incentives.
• Appropriate budgeting for the agricultural sector: Adequate budget allocation will increase the reach of intervention programmes, capacity building and technological advancement in sub-Saharan Africa’s agriculture.
• Resume an inquiry into existing ministries of agriculture, environment and other regulatory agencies to understand the work that they do and how this has changed over the years in line with the needs of our growing population.

Our collective effort will determine how effectively we rebuild our communities, countries and economies post-COVID-19, embracing changes we have seen as effective and modifying those that are less effective. Young people in agriculture, especially, have a role to play in building a more-resilient food sector within our different countries.

 The Author

Lilian Umeakunne

Lilian Umeakunne is a food security and livelihoods specialist devoted to making a change in African Agriculture. Follow her on social media to share your thoughts and contribute your ideas to solving Africa's greatest problem - hunger and poverty.

Handles
LinkedIn: Lilian Umeakunne
Twitter: @Lily_Umeh
Facebook: Lilian Umeakunne.

COVID-19 Pandemic - impact on Food Security in sub-Saharan Africa.

Ensuring access to safe and nutritious food during the COVID-19 pandemic is pivotal to saving lives among the most vulnerable as food prices increase drastically in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. As the regulations are tightened to prevent further spread of the virus, food supply chains are strained due to bottle-necks in transporting food products from point A to B. Before now, rural communities have had to deal with challenges facing the agricultural sector such as the limited  market for their produce, which now exposes vulnerable communities to hunger and starvation during this time. The Covid-19 pandemic not only affects significant elements of both food supply and demand but also exposes the lapses in our food systems with insight on areas we should look to strengthen in the future.

As countries are on either partial or full lockdown, people who depend on wages have lost their income-earning opportunities which have greatly impacted purchase/consumption and access to safe nutritious food. There have also been few changes in consumer behaviour, such as fewer visits to site markets (slaughterhouses), hoarding and dietary changes due to fewer food choices brought about by unavailability and increased cost of food. Unless we keep global food supply chains alive, food crises are likely to affect the most vulnerable during the global pandemic. The lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic will inform our food policies for years to come.

Border closures, lockdown regulations and market and supply chain disruptions could restrict people’s access to safe, sufficient, nutritious food especially in communities hit hard by the coronavirus or previously at risk of food insecurity. Prices of food have seen an unprecedented rise in the past few weeks in different parts of Africa and may continue to rise as food vendors report that restrictions on travel and high transportation costs make it harder and more expensive to move food products to places where they are needed. Food imports are one of the ways countries in the region supplement local production to meet the growing demand for food and food products, with international food export on halt, countries who depend largely on importation are facing great challenges in accessing enough food especially staples such as rice.

Local food production has been suspended by companies in lieu of government regulations to protect staff and the public, locally sourced staples have seen a great price jump threatening food and nutrition security in vulnerable communities. Food and nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa before now have struggled to receive the attention it deserves from government and policymakers which has increased the vulnerability of our food systems and our ability to manage our food supply amidst the global pandemic.

Recommendations

To avoid disruptions to the food supply chain and food production, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is urging all countries to:

• Keep international trade open and take measures that protect their food supply chain (from obtaining inputs such as seeds to assuring smallholder farmers have access to markets to sell their produce).
• Focus on the needs of the most vulnerable and scale-up social protection programmes including cash transfers.
• Keep their domestic food supply value chains alive and functioning.
• Taking all necessary precautions, seeds and planting materials must continue to flow to smallholders; animal feed to livestock breeders; and aquaculture inputs to fish farmers. Agricultural supply chains should be kept alive in-line with health safety concerns.
• Maintain agricultural activities.

Read more here

The Author.

Lilian Umeakunne

Lilian Umeakunne is a Food security and livelihoods specialist devoted to making a change in African Agriculture. 
Follow her on social media to share your thoughts and contribute your ideas to solving Africa's greatest problem - hunger and poverty.

Handles
LinkedIn: Lilian Umeakunne
Twitter: @Lily_Umeh
Facebook: Lilian Umeakunne.